Going by his reputation Chiranjeevi is an indecisive man who agonises a lot before taking any decision. But the delay in kickstarting his party has nothing to do with the megastar's nature: it was possibly a deliberate decision to float a political outfit only six months before the elections. The film star wants to take a one full circle of the state which he reckons would boost his popularity enough to allow him to somersault to the chief minister's gaddi. By implication the thinking is that if the period between his actual launch and elections is longer the superstar's appeal could be waning.

But on the eve of his maiden political press conference, analysts predict with confidence that Chiru will certainly be kingmaker, though they can't figure out whether he has the chance of becoming the king. "It's an inter-dependent world, what you will be able to achieve will also depend on what others do. Before Chandrababu Naidu's 'Mee Kosam' it was certain that TDP was on a very weak wicket; but no longer so. It would not be a cakewalk for Chiranjeevi," says a Congress MP.

In other words, if there were prospects earlier that the main battle would be between the Congress and the Chiranjeevi party, the present assessment is that there will be a three-way battle. "This could well throw up a hung legislative assembly, which means that Chiranjeevi can become a crucial factor and may be a kingmaker," a political analyst said.

Other analysts say that if Naidu's crisscrossing of the state had not been perceived as not good enough, his cadres would have left en masse and what is more his support base would have shifted away from him to Chiranjeevi. But except for a few leaders not many are expected to desert Chandrababu.

The Congress under Y S Rajasekhara Reddy - in spite of his overconfidence - however remains strong notwithstanding the anti incumbency factor. This means that the number of Congress leaders - except for those who see no chances of getting party nominations in the next elections - deserting the party for Chiranjeevi party will be minimal.

Analysts say that for Chiranjeevi to transit to be perceived as king from kingmaker will be a giant leap. They point out that only if the megastar is able to truly become a backward caste leader will he able to become the king. "The OBCs, Dalits and scheduled tribes comprise the majority of voters in the state. In this the OBCs form the chunk. He has to win their support to become chief minister," a political analyst said.

At present Chiranjeevi is merely seen as a leader of the Kapus and of his fans who are concentrated in cities. "The common man and the OBCs are yet to sail with him though his manifesto makers and political aides are advising him to have a strong backward caste orientation," a close watcher of political affairs says.

However analysts agree that the megastar has a strong support base in West and East Godavari, Srikakulam, Vijayanagaram, Visakhapatnam, parts of Guntur, Krishna, Chittoor, Prakasam, Kurnool and Anantapur districts. Though in his films Chiranjeevi asks for a share of the earnings in the Nizam's territory as his remuneration, his support base in Telangana is not all that much.